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The Health, Economic and Environmental Implications of Fossil Gas

Global, with three city deep dives: Bogotá (Colombia), Johannesburg (South Africa), Montreal (Canada)

To limit warming to within 1.5°C we require a swift and equitable transition to renewable energy. This transition must focus on phasing out fossil fuels and meeting energy demands through the provision of renewable electricity.

Fossil gas is a key part of the fossil fuel problem, yet is often misleadingly touted as a ‘natural’ or ‘clean’ alternative. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group connects nearly 100 cities around the world, representing approximately 800 million people and one quarter of the global economy. º£½ÇÊÓƵ and University College London (UCL) were commissioned by C40 Cities to undertake

Challenge

Fossil gas accounts for around one quarter of the total global energy supply and around a fifth of global energy-related CO₂ emissions. It consists largely of methane, an especially potent greenhouse gas. When burned for energy, fossil gas produces significant air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, as well as harmful health, economic and environmental impacts.

In 2020, 3,317 pre-term births and 35,987 premature deaths in C40 cities could be attributed to the burning of fossil gas. Its use in electricity, buildings and industry is responsible for 6% of C40 cities’ total emissions gap between a 1.5°C pathway and current pledge to 2035, growing to 10% of the gap by 2050.

Despite its negative impacts, fossil gas consumption has been growing, not declining, over the past decade and this trend is set to continue. Ongoing investments in fossil gas might be linked to recent events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis, but more significantly is underpinned by complex, systemic geo-political, economic shifts and other factors.

Continued and increasing use of fossil gas risks carbon lock-in, making it much more challenging to meet global climate targets while also exposing populations to pollution and increased risk of ill health. Gas prices are volatile and rising, while the fossil fuel industry has been based on extractive relationships, placing burden on citizens and regions.

Cities represent about 65% of global energy consumption and have a major role to play in the transition to decarbonised energy systems. Cities are already leading the transition to clean energy by banning and divesting from fossil gas, reducing demand and increasing energy security, investing in renewables and decarbonising heating and cooling.

Urban decision-makers however, often lack the evidence base to refute the touted myths of fossil gas and bring forward the actions required to support a rapid and just transition away from fossil gas.    

Solution

Through this commission º£½ÇÊÓƵ was appointed to lead a two-part study focused on degasification of the buildings, industry and power sectors. We looked at small and utility scale renewables (primarily solar and wind) as a replacement to fossil gas, but acknowledged the role of other sectors and technologies. The critical importance of reducing energy demand and increasing efficiency was integrated throughout.

Phase One sought to compile the latest and most robust evidence together into a set of global and regional narratives that debunked the key myths associated with degasification. A mixed-method approach was adopted, alongside analysis of secondary evidence and facilitation of interviews with global energy system experts.

A technical and headlines document was produced, addressing 18 topics that were scoped and prioritised with C40 and UCL. These included technical feasibility, economic viability, transition fuel considerations, jobs and employment, just transition, and finance and regulatory needs.

Phase Two sought to conduct a deep dive into degasification in three cities; Bogota (Colombia), Johannesburg (South Africa) and Montreal (Canada). It explored both the challenges and opportunities for phasing-out gas across the cities.

It aimed to provide the three cities with an insight into what such an energy transition may entail, and critically how each city may support and accelerate action to deliver this. Again, a mixed-methods approach was adopted to inform this, involving energy system modelling, secondary evidence review and interviews.

Interviews were conducted with city officials but also a wide range of stakeholders across each city including gas and electricity organisations, institutions, engineering professionals, advocacy organisations and financial institutions.

Value

The outputs produced by º£½ÇÊÓƵ provide C40 with an evidence base that will be drawn upon to support its energy transition work and engagement with cities. The was launched in October 2022 during the world Mayors Summit in Buenos Aries.

Phase One could be used by C40 Cities to help any city to make the case for a swift and just transition, away from fossil gas and toward renewables. It can be used to refute the misleading narratives surrounding fossil gas.

By selecting three very different city contexts in Phase Two, it is hoped that a wide number of other cities will be able to identify common challenges and opportunities to those seen in Johannesburg, Bogota and Montreal and in turn understand how they can accelerate action to phase-out gas.

The study has brought insights from almost 30 international energy system experts, including city officials, development banks, institutional investors, fossil gas and renewable industries, advocacy organisations, academic and research institutions. Across the three cities, more than 50 tailored recommendations for immediate actions have been made.

These recommendations have been developed based on significant industry engagement, signalling clear support from many across key parts of the energy value chain.

You can read more on the study’s findings by accessing the final C40 research report: .