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Climate resilience in London: a systems-based shift from risk to readiness 

As world leaders gather in Brazil for COP30, climate resilience and adaptation are at the top of the news agenda, but our teams have long been helping to shape the future of how we live in a changing world – no more so than in London, where a shift in thinking is adopting a systems-based approach 

Flooding, overheating, storms, drought and wildfires now interact in ways that amplify risk and financial loss around the world as a result of climate change. In England, 6.3 million properties already face flood risk from rivers, the sea or surface water, according to the UK Green Building Council’s recently published Climate Resilience Roadmap, which Ƶ partnered on creating. On current trajectories that rises to eight million by 2050, or one in four homes. 

The roadmap sets out a clear, actionable vision for a climate-resilient built environment. It translates complex data and research into practical, scalable solutions tailored to the sector’s unique vulnerabilities. It also provides a framework for embedding resilience into every stage of planning, design, construction and policy. We were proud to play a key role in helping to shape this important industry project, which is more than a report – it’s a tool for bringing awareness and enabling action. 

Heat is already lethal, with 3,271 heat-related excess deaths recorded in the 2022 heatwave across England and Wales1.

For London specifically, the picture is even sharper. Surface water events and urban heat island effects coincide with asset level vulnerabilities and borough level exposure. In July 2021, extreme rain delivered a month’s worth in an hour, flooding more than 2,000 properties and driving £281m of insured losses. An incredible 42% of the capital’s 301,000 commercial buildings are at risk of surface water flooding, a shocking reality outlined in the report.

Investors have noticed. The roadmap’s financial perspective sets out why all too often fragmented responsibility, weak market signals and short-term horizons are constraining adaptation investment, even as the cost of inaction rises. Climate risk is no longer a distant consideration. It is a set of real-world exposures that are already shaping valuations, insurance terms and tenant expectations. Resilience, once a technical niche, is now boardroom vocabulary.

We are at a critical moment when action needs to be taken to ensure our urban communities are able adapt to climate change in an equitable and timely manner and remain viable places to invest and develop.

Duncan Price, leader for sustainability and climate change advisory at Ƶ

But there are signs of a shift in attitudes. Across London, three currents are converging. Firstly, investors want credible, consistent standards that transform sustainability and resilience from a compliance exercise into a source of value protection and creation. Secondly, public authorities are translating climate science into practical pathways that can guide decisions over decades and bring equitable social impacts for all communities as well as supporting economic growth and guarding against stranded assets. Thirdly, developers are proving that adaptive reuse and complex regeneration can deliver desirable places that are ready for the future. Taken together, these currents are defining a pragmatic route from commitment to delivery.

“Ensuring the future prosperity, health, and competitiveness of a 21st century city, depends on recognising and managing the interconnected risks posed by multiple hazards,” says Duncan Price, leader for sustainability and climate change advisory at Ƶ. “Only a joined-up, systems‑based strategy coordinating across sectors, stakeholders, and assets can address this.”

Pricing risk into portfolios

For institutional owners, the market has moved faster than many operating models. Targets abound, but translating them into acquisition briefs, design guides and asset business plans is where the real work happens. That is why Royal London Asset Management turned to Ƶ to develop its pathway to a more sustainable future. Part of the UK’s largest mutually owned pension and investment company, Royal London Asset Management has more than £150bn of assets under management.

We worked with Royal London Asset Management as a strategic consultant to develop a robust sustainability framework and strategy to implement within its new build and refurbishment real estate development funds. Our experts supported Royal London Asset Management with visioning, goals and key performance indicators, as well as ESG action plans, guidelines and best practices. From here we defined specific actions to support the achievement of Net Zero, to build climate resilience, and to champion sustainable growth. This ensures Royal London Asset Management continues to create resilient environments and communities that demonstrate their ESG commitment and start to deliver social value.

What this signals to the market is important. When a major investor bakes resilient and low-carbon outcomes into its plans, it reduces execution risk for design teams, contractors and occupiers. It also creates a shared language for asset acquisition and disposal. Portfolios become easier to future-proof because the standards that govern them are coherent across geographies and asset types. That consistency allows better forecasting of operational costs and a clearer narrative to lenders and insurers who are recalibrating their own risk models.

Turning strategy into action

Public authority leaders are also systematising how the city adapts. The City of London Corporation’s Climate Action Strategy is unambiguous about the need to confront hotter, drier summers, warmer, wetter winters and more frequent extreme weather. To underpin that strategy, the Corporation commissioned Ƶ to undertake a Climate Resilience Adaptive Pathways Study. The approach identifies climate thresholds and trigger points, then sets out sequenced actions that can be taken over time as conditions change. It is an approach familiar in water management, but was applied across the full breadth of climate risks affecting buildings, public realm and infrastructure.

The initial study recommended 39 programmes spanning built assets, natural capital, emergency planning and support for communities and businesses. Crucially, it delivers a practical, time-aware method to avoid maladaptation and to manage public budgets under uncertainty. We went on to work with the City of London Corporation on a second phase of the project, to inform the Climate Action Strategy post-2027. [2/3]

Illustration of The City of London skyline
The adaptive pathways strategic plan is believed to be one of the first studies of its kind in the UK. Image: Ƶ.

For private investors, those signals matter. If your assets sit within the Square Mile or trades within it, you now have a spatially specific articulation of risk and response. That reduces ambiguity. It also strengthens the business case for measures that might otherwise be value-engineered out. 

The UKGBC systems mapping shows how hazard “cascades” ripple through communities, infrastructure and balance sheets, potentially stranding assets. Flooding and heat are the clearest portfolio threats in London, with storms often acting as multipliers.

Our recent work for owners in the capital is surfacing pragmatic issues often missed by desk‑only screening. As Alex Couling, a senior sustainability consultant at Ƶ, who is supporting a number of London-based portfolio holders to assess and adapt to climate risk, puts it: “Many existing assets have aging drainage systems, exacerbating climate impacts. What we repeatedly find is that risks relating to heavy rainfall and flooding don’t necessarily align with surface water flood projections. They require consideration of the wider picture and building resilience to these risks call for adaptation at a scale beyond the site boundary.”

Across the mixed portfolios we assessed, flooding recurred, but not in the same way from site to site. The repeatable lessons were in operations, maintenance and the micro‑infrastructure that determines recoverability after an event. That is exactly where stranded‑asset risk turns into capex programmes investors can evaluate.

London does not need static plans. It needs clear mechanisms to sequence measures over time, trigger decisions at thresholds, and co‑optimise with decarbonisation. That is what adaptive pathways provide: a structured, threshold‑based route that prioritises low‑regret interventions now, defines tipping points for future, more disruptive works, and aligns capital allocation with uncertainty.

“The Ƶ approach to adaptive pathways planning applies that methodology across multiple climate scenarios at building and district scales, not just infrastructure,” says Christine Cambrook, associate director at Ƶ, who has a background in integrated water resource management and sustainable design. “Adaptive pathways allow investors, developers and city leaders to sequence interventions over time, align capital with climate thresholds, and co-optimise resilience with decarbonisation. It’s not just about protecting assets – it’s about designing a city that can adapt, recover and thrive in the face of uncertainty.”

Asset-level resilience mindset

On London’s riverside, resilience thinking is manifesting in a different way. The transformation of Lots Road Power Station into Powerhouse at Chelsea Waterfront is a case study in the complexity of making historic fabric work for contemporary living. The project, which completed and opened to the public in January 2025, saw the adaptive reuse of a building originally built at the start of the twentieth century.

Restored facade of the Lots Road power station.
The former Lots Road power station, which for decades provided the entire London Underground with electricity. Image: Hutchison Property Group.

Systems thinking was central to unlocking the potential of the Lots Road Power Station regeneration. Rather than treating the site’s challenges – historic constraints, flood risk, utility complexity – as isolated issues, the project approached them as interconnected parts of a wider urban system. This enabled Ƶ’s multidisciplinary team to coordinate structural, environmental and advisory strategies that not only made the site buildable, but also future-proofed it against climate impacts. By liaising with the Port of London Authority, integrating flood resilience into the river wall, and designing adaptable “building within a building” solutions, the project enhanced the site’s climate resilience while preserving its heritage.

Crucially, this systems-led approach benefits the wider community by safeguarding public realm, improving long-term insurability, and contributing to the climate-adapted fabric of Chelsea’s riverside.

At Lots Road, as at many built assets across the capital, our engineering and advisory experts are helping to shape the climate change adapted, resilient homes of tomorrow.

Looking ahead

There is a temptation to treat climate resilience as a stand-alone topic. The truth is, it must be embedded as a system-wide discipline. Resilience is not just about protecting individual assets – it’s about understanding how buildings, infrastructure, communities and natural systems interact under stress. A systems thinking approach enables investors, developers and public authorities to anticipate cascading risks, sequence interventions over time, and align climate adaptation with decarbonisation. It turns resilience from a reactive add-on into a proactive operating system for the city.

Climate change protestors make their voices heard. But could systems-thinking enable adaptation? Image: Getty

This mindset protects more than buildings – it safeguards the productivity and economic output of the capital. According to the London Climate Resilience Review, climate change could reduce London’s GDP by 2–3% every year by the 2050s, with costs escalating further into the century [6]. That’s a direct threat to the city’s competitiveness, especially given that each London worker contributes significantly more to the UK economy than the national average. Protecting the city’s infrastructure, mobility and liveability is therefore a national economic imperative.

There is a need for urgency. As the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) highlights, every £1 invested in flood defences prevents around £8 of damage – £3 of which is a direct saving for government, because more than a third of flood damage affects publicly-owned infrastructure like roads, railways, schools and hospitals. In 2023, UK insurers paid out £573m in weather-related claims, half of which were due to flooding. Resilience measures reduce these costs, prevent stranded assets, and improve insurability. They also support business continuity, protect asset value, and reduce operational downtime.

Asset owners and operators, developers and public authorities can and must hardwire resilience and adaptation into everyday decisions. Resilience is not an add-on. It is the operating system of a city that refuses to stand still – and a foundation for protecting its people, its assets, and its economic future.

Global momentum 

London is not alone in recognising that climate resilience demands a systems-based response. Around the world, cities are beginning to treat resilience not as a siloed technical fix, but as a strategic operating principle. From Singapore’s nature-integrated flood management to Rotterdam’s layered adaptation planning, urban leaders are embedding resilience into infrastructure, finance, and community engagement. The World Green Building Council’s (WorldGBC) recent position paper makes this clear: resilience is now a global priority, with 29 countries and the European Commission backing the UN’s Buildings Breakthrough target for “near-zero emission and resilient buildings to be the new normal by 2030”.[4]

This shift is particularly relevant as we approach COP30, where adaptation and resilience are expected to take centre stage. The first Global Stocktake in 2024 revealed that while mitigation efforts are progressing, adaptation remains fragmented and underfunded. Built environment professionals have a critical role to play in closing this gap. By applying systems thinking – recognising the interdependencies between climate hazards, infrastructure, communities and ecosystems – cities can move from reactive recovery to proactive resilience. The UKGBC and WorldGBC frameworks both emphasise this: resilience must be embedded across planning, design, finance and operations, not bolted on after the fact.

The urgency to act is clear. Delaying investment in climate resilience only compounds the cost – financially, socially and environmentally. The Returns on Resilience report[5], published ahead of COP30 with support from the Gates Foundation, finds that adaptation investments deliver four times more benefit than cost, with an average annual return of 25%. Scaling resilience interventions globally could unlock 280 million new jobs by 2035, while the adaptation and resilience market is projected to reach $1.3 trillion annually by 2030.

These figures reinforce the UK’s own experience: every £1 invested in flood defences prevents around £8 of damage, with £3 saved directly by government due to the impact on public infrastructure. The longer we wait, the higher the final bill measured in disrupted services, uninsured losses, and stranded assets. Resilience is not just a safeguard – it’s a strategic investment in prosperity, competitiveness and long-term economic security.

What next? Turning strategy into action

The UKGBC Climate Resilience Roadmap and WorldGBC Readiness Framework offer a clear direction for the sector. But the next step is delivery. That means:

Embedding resilience across the lifecycle: From site selection and concept design to operations and retrofit, resilience must be hardwired into every stage of development.

Using adaptive pathways: Projects should be designed to evolve over time, with clear thresholds that trigger future interventions as climate conditions change.

Aligning finance and governance: Investors and asset managers must adopt resilience metrics, integrate climate risk into decision-making, and support long-term adaptation strategies.

Empowering local action: Community-led resilience planning, nature-based solutions and inclusive design are essential to ensure adaptation benefits everyone.

Tracking progress: Metrics for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity – such as those outlined in the UKGBC Roadmap – should be used to monitor and improve resilience over time.

Resilience is not a single intervention. It is a mindset, a method, and a shared responsibility. As COP30 approaches, the built environment must choose this moment to act and showcase how systems thinking can deliver climate-safe, liveable cities. 

Ƶ projects applying systems-thinking around the globe

UP2030 logo against a green cityscape silhouette

UP2030 – Climate-Neutral Cities Across Europe

Cities involved: Belfast, Budapest, Lisbon, Milan, Rotterdam, Thessaloniki, Zagreb 

Ƶ is part of a 47-member consortium helping 10 European cities transition to climate neutrality by 2030. The project uses a five-part methodology – updating policy, upskilling stakeholders, prototyping solutions, scaling city-wide impact, and sharing best practice – to embed climate resilience into urban planning, governance and finance.

Image: Getty

C40 Cities – Labour, Jobs and Cost Impact of a Transition to Clean Construction

Cities involved: Global (with focus on C40 member cities London, Oslo, Madrid, Seattle, Bogota, Mexico City, Nairobi)

This project goes beyond carbon accounting to explore how transitioning to clean construction affects labour markets, job creation, and economic resilience. Ƶ’s analysis links climate mitigation with social equity and economic opportunity – key pillars of systems thinking. It demonstrates how adaptation and decarbonisation can be co-optimised through policy, procurement and workforce planning, helping cities build resilience not just in infrastructure, but in livelihoods.

Aerial rendering of the Blankenburger Suden Development
Blankenburger Süden Image: yellow z / bgmr Landschaftsarchitekten.

Blankenburger Süden

Cities involved: Berlin

A new climate-resilient neighbourhood delivering 6,000 homes. Ƶ applied a bespoke methodology to address both mitigation and adaptation, including heat island reduction and stormwater management, despite limited early-stage data.

The 100 Resilient Cities – Strategy Partner Programme project focused on four cities across Europe and Asia, including Jakarta (pictured). Image: Adobe Stock.

100 Resilient Cities – Strategy Partner Programme

Cities involved: Tbilisi, Belgrade, Melaka, Jakarta 

As a strategy partner in the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100RC initiative, Ƶ supported resilience governance frameworks, stakeholder engagement and capacity building. The work addressed both acute shocks and chronic stresses, embedding resilience into city systems.  Read more: 100 Resilient Cities, Strategies Partner Programme – Ƶ


[1] UKGBC Climate Resilience Roadmap (2025)

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