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Executive summary

Supply chain resilience might once have been considered as primarily a procurement issue. But in an era of geopolitical volatility – and with conflict in the Middle East – it has become a built‑environment design and delivery challenge to be proactively managed. 

As tensions continue across the Middle East, the political and social impacts are notably visible. But the economic impacts are being felt, too. Countries across the Gulf are highly exposed to any supply chain disruption due to  and reliance of supply networks for key materials and products at multiple levels: local, regional and international. 

Analysis from º£½ÇÊÓƵ shows that, unless mitigated, supply chain disruption can have a significant impact on the final delivery of projects, not just the procurement of materials. This is seen through three lenses: schedule, cost and delivery.  

Late, unplanned disruption to material availability forces design rework, rather than just procurement adjustment alone. The projects that will succeed are those that treat supply chain volatility as a core design consideration rather than a procurement issue. Key is how decision makers now scope, sequence, structure and govern projects in anticipation of continued volatility and disruption.

1. Design solutions that the market can reliably deliver
2. Prioritise early procurement for high-risk materials
3. Reduce dependency on import-heavy systems through alternative sourcing
4. Build contingency into cost and schedule to manage uncertainty.

It is critical to act earlier, design for flexibility and manage supply chain risk proactively, not reactively. In the short term, this means a focus on delivery continuity. In the long-term, the focus shifts to supply resilience.  

The conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the stress points in the construction supply chain. While the immediate pressures this one conflict has caused may ease, the point remains that geo-political uncertainty is increasingly seen as a permanent risk. Factoring this new risk landscape into construction programmes is key to successful delivery.

What this means for your delivery programme

Construction projects across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are highly dependent on cross‑border material flows. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is . Disruption around key trade corridors –  â€“ is delaying shipments (e.g. rerouting of ships around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope ), increasing freight and insurance costs and extending construction programmes. 

Supply chain disruption (image 1) is primarily driven by three interconnected factors: logistics/distribution constraints, manufacturing constraints and import dependency. The built environment is physically exposed to disruption to materials in a way that few other sectors are. Constraints affect the physical inputs â€“ the materials – required to build. And across the Gulf, projects in the region are import-heavy and logistics-dependent.

Analysis from º£½ÇÊÓƵ on the availability of and disruption to construction materials has identified several key implications for live and future projects (image 2): 

• Schedule- there is an increased risk of delays due to extended procurement timelines for critical materials and equipment. This particularly affects construction sequencing and create knock on effects across dependent activities.
• Cost- cost escalation is driven by logistical issues, increased raw material price and insurance premiums, and higher contractor pricing because of uncertainty and perception of risk.
• Delivery- reduced predictability in supply chains affect final project delivery (planning, design, construction activities and sequencing across disciplines). Delayed or poorly sequenced handovers can slow the move to operations, postpone benefits and drive higher early‑life operating costs.

When these three dimensions are combined, it becomes clear that disruption to key materials cascades beyond procurement and logistics alone. Uncertain availability and long lead times directly influence design freeze decisions, interface coordination and construction plans. As a result, supply chain disruptions must be managed as an integrated design and construction sequencing challenge, (requiring early cross disciplinary planning and mitigation) rather than being addressed solely through procurement interventions. 

Our analysis shows a shift in the nature of risk

Analysis from º£½ÇÊÓƵ shows that the conflict in the Middle East has exposed a growing truth: that there has been a shift in the nature of risk for delivery of construction projects. This shift is from traditional site-based delivery challenges towards supply chain led delivery â€“ where outcomes are driven by logistics constraints, import dependency and global trade volatility. 

Distribution networks are most affected, acting as a system-wide risk amplifier for almost all materials. Disruption to key maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, is affecting material flows into the region, prompting ‑wire logistics plans. Increased reliance on alternative routes, such as the Red Sea and Jeddah port, is creating logistical bottlenecks, extending transport distances and placing pressure on transportation economics, resulting in delays as well as higher freight costs and pricing volatility. Rerouting away from the Suez Canal via the Cape of Good Hope  Many critical materials and systems rely heavily on imports from Asia, Europe and other international markets, increasing exposure to global disruptions.

In response to conflict Saudi Arabia has begun to re‑engineer inland logistics . Disruption is now shaping inland logistics patterns as well as nautical ones. This shift brings material cost and schedule implications.

In addition to transport and logistics challenges, energy‑related disruptions materially impact manufacturing capacity. Energy supply instability and rising energy costs in Asia and Europe are reducing production volumes and increasing input costs for energy‑intensive industries. This is particularly evident in the production of key construction materials such as aluminium, steel and copper. It is here where higher electricity and fuel prices are constraining output, driving up costs and further exacerbating supply‑chain volatility across global markets. 

There is also growing pressure to source locally. While locally sourced materials (cement, aggregates)  pressure due to the scale of ongoing projects across the Middle East.  

Materials most at risk of disruption

º£½ÇÊÓƵ mapped construction materials based on their level of disruption risk and potential impact on projects, focusing the analysis on high risk/high impact materials (image 3). 

At the heart of this analysis is insight into the materials that are most at risk and will have the most impact on project delivery, largely driven by high import dependency, whether import of a raw material or a finished product. These are:  

• Mechanical and electrical systems: subject to strong import dependency for raw materials and certain finished products due to long lead times. MEP materials are under noticeable demand pressure (examples include: copper pipes, chillers, switchgears, transformers, elevators).
• Facade materials/components: including specialised finishes (examples include: aluminium, glass, engineered timber).
• Structural materials: steel and concrete, where strong local capacity, demand pressure and dependencies on certain imported raw material impact supply flow, (e.g., iron, and chemical additives/admixtures ). Structural materials are under noticeable demand pressure.
• Locally produced materials: show relatively lower upstream risk (e.g. HDPE pipes, concrete inputs), while globally traded commodities remain highly exposed (e.g. copper, specialty metals, timber).

What should project owners, developers, designers and contractors do to mitigate risk and build resilience?

While the immediate conflict may ease in the short-to-medium term, . Supply chain exposure is a new reality that all businesses now face – and in the built environment, this means project owners, developers, designers and main contractors need strategies in place to understand, mitigate and adapt to supply chain disruption as a persistent operating risk to the delivery of their construction projects.

Supply chain resilience is a strategic risk, not an operational detail – and those who consider supply chain risk proactively, not reactively, will build in resilience.

This isn’t just about late or delayed delivery of materials. Supply chain risk can be a core project design and delivery parameter, not a downstream procurement issue. Understanding the exposure of projects mean the ability to act early and design for flexibility. Supply chain resilience is a strategic risk, not an operational detail – and those who consider supply chain risk proactively, not reactively, will build in resilience.  

Key recommendations:  

Ultimately, projects that choose to adapt these four principles, will be far better positioned to navigate uncertainty and maintain delivery performance. For construction and built environment projects to achieve successful outcomes, proactively anticipating and managing critical material and systems volatility must be treated as a core project discipline, not a reactive response to disruption. 

Another way to consider risk mitigation is through the lens of both short-term and long-term actions.  

How º£½ÇÊÓƵ can support delivery certainty

Supply disruption is now a delivery issue. It is no longer a short‑term challenge but a structural risk that can affect construction project outcomes across the Middle East.

The most resilient programmes are already adjusting: they are bringing decisions on high‑risk materials forward, talking to suppliers earlier about availability and pricing, building more realistic cost and programme contingency into live projects and resequencing work to reduce exposure to delays.

For project sponsors and delivery teams, the priority now is to turn volatility into specific delivery choices: define the problem in your context, surface risks early, align design intent with procurement realities and be explicit about the trade‑offs you are willing to make to protect delivery. To turn volatility into concrete delivery choices that keep projects moving, even when disruption becomes the norm, get in touch with our experts.

Appendix: methodology

The research undertaken by º£½ÇÊÓƵ included desktop analysis and field investigation/validation. Results and recommendations are qualitative/thematic and based on professional judgement. 

Desktop analysis: results are based on a desktop assessment of publicly available international trade and production data for key materials. A risk/impact matrix to prioritise â€˜high impact / high risk’ materials and a simplified three-stage supply chain flow (raw materials → manufacturing → distribution) were developed to locate where disruption is occurring. This reflects a strategic interpretation rather than definitive status. 

Field investigation: assessment and insight are based on answers received from contractors and industry professionals (non-attributed). Respondents were located both locally within the Middle East and globally. Their expertise on supply chain management and project management was at all stages, including from raw material sourcing, manufacturing, logistics/distribution and final delivery.  

High risk/high impact analysis: º£½ÇÊÓƵ mapped construction materials based on their level of disruption risk and potential impact on projects, focusing the analysis on high risk/high impact materials. 

They were identified using the following assumptions:  

High risk: Material is primarily imported from international locations facing manufacturing/or shipping disruptions/Material is produced locally but is not sufficient to meet current demand of projects/Material is produced locally but is heavily dependent on international imported raw material. 

High impact: Material is high demand and is crucial for construction delivery, therefore the current disruption can have a high impact on projects due to either low stocks, long leads or difficulty in supply. 

To assess supply chain risks across high risk/high impact materials, a stage-by-stage diagnostic framework was applied, evaluating vulnerabilities across the full value chain:

• Assessed the degree of import dependency at both raw material and finished product levels
• Identified key disruption risks at each supply chain stage
• Evaluated challenge intensity (low/medium/high) across four dimensions:
  • Raw material constraints
    • Availability of local feedstock vs. reliance on imports 
    • Exposure to globally concentrated supply chains (e.g. copper, steel alloys, timber) 
    • Sensitivity to energy-intensive upstream processes 
  • Manufacturing complexity and capacity
    • Local manufacturing capacity and maturity
    • Dependence on imported intermediate components
    • Exposure to energy costs and production lead times
  • Logistics exposure
    • Reliance on international shipping routes and ports
    • Exposure to fuel price volatility and transit delays
    • Complexity of transporting large or specialised components
  • Demand pressure
    • Alignment between local supply capacity and pipeline demand.
    • Risk of demand outpacing supply, driving price escalation and delays